ATP Model: Week 20 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 56 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 30W-26L for +$0.80 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 53.6%
- Average edge: 2.6c per trade
- Net P&L: +$0.80
Example Trades
- Matteo Arnaldi: 25c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
- Tommy Paul: 60c entry, Lost (-$1.26)
- Learner Tien: 28c entry, Won (+$3.09)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.