ATP Model: Week 19 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 16 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 0W-16L for -$32.49 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 0.0%
- Average edge: -52.8c per trade
- Net P&L: -$32.49
Example Trades
- Sorribes Tormo S.: 37c entry, Lost (-$1.11)
- Bolt A.: 41c entry, Lost (-$1.23)
- Sorribes Tormo S.: 44c entry, Lost (-$1.32)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.