ATP Model: Week 18 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 31 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 14W-17L for +$0.20 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 45.2%
- Average edge: 1.0c per trade
- Net P&L: +$0.20
Example Trades
- Learner Tien: 48c entry, Lost (-$3.06)
- Flavio Cobolli: 52c entry, Won (+$3.05)
- Brandon Nakashima: 47c entry, Lost (-$3.18)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.