WTA Model: Week 20 Analysis
Our WTA model identified 118 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 56W-62L for -$23.59 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 47.5%
- Average edge: -5.9c per trade
- Net P&L: -$23.59
Example Trades
- Karolina Pliskova: 58c entry, Won (+$0.88)
- Elena Rybakina: 90c entry, Won (+$0.20)
- Jessica Pegula: 90c entry, Won (+$0.20)
How the WTA Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.