WTA Model: Week 17 Analysis
Our WTA model identified 21 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 10W-11L for -$9.60 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 47.6%
- Average edge: -5.4c per trade
- Net P&L: -$9.60
Example Trades
- Rebecca Sramkova: 45c entry, Lost (-$2.55)
- Suzan Lamens: 53c entry, Lost (-$2.75)
- Karolina Muchova: 50c entry, Won (+$2.65)
How the WTA Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.