SOCCER Model: Week 18 Analysis
Our SOCCER model identified 9 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 3W-6L for -$0.82 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 33.3%
- Average edge: -6.9c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.82
Example Trades
- home: 53c entry, Lost (-$0.53)
- home: 61c entry, Won (+$0.39)
- away: 30c entry, Lost (-$0.50)
How the SOCCER Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.