SOCCER Model: Week 17 Analysis
Our SOCCER model identified 13 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 3W-10L for -$4.25 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 23.1%
- Average edge: -22.2c per trade
- Net P&L: -$4.25
Example Trades
- home: 72c entry, Lost (-$0.72)
- away: 22c entry, Lost (-$0.48)
- home: 32c entry, Lost (-$0.48)
How the SOCCER Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.