ATP Model: Week 17 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 25 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 12W-13L for +$8.05 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 48.0%
- Average edge: 0.7c per trade
- Net P&L: +$8.05
Example Trades
- Andrey Rublev: 51c entry, Won (+$5.09)
- Brandon Nakashima: 45c entry, Won (+$6.45)
- Brandon Nakashima: 50c entry, Won (+$5.20)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.