NBA Basketball Model: Week 17 Analysis
Our NBA Basketball model identified 7 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 4W-3L for +$1.11 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 57.1%
- Average edge: -9.9c per trade
- Net P&L: +$1.11
Example Trades
- magic: 58c entry, Won (+$1.68)
- suns: 66c entry, Won (+$1.36)
- clippers: 80c entry, Lost (-$1.60)
How the NBA Basketball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.