MLB Baseball Model: Week 17 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 25 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 15W-10L for -$2.42 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 60.0%
- Average edge: 1.7c per trade
- Net P&L: -$2.42
Example Trades
- losangelesangels: 35c entry, Lost (-$2.28)
- newyorkmets: 57c entry, Lost (-$1.80)
- atlantabraves: 53c entry, Won (+$1.88)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.